What does resilience look like in New Zealand's transport sector?
We all want to live resiliently. But what does that look like, and why is it not building more roads?
I had another post planned for this week (something incredibly interesting you should consider subscribing for), but recent events and articles like this one by Bernard Hickey have distracted me somewhat. Specifically this section where Hickey highlights the Government’s transport priorities moving forward. Below are a few choice lines from Prime Minister Chris Hipkins from a post-Cabinet press conference:
"PM: I think you’ll see resilience and the resilience in the transport network being a much, much bigger priority now. It was in the previous priorities, but I think you’ll find it’ll be front and centre of the final policy statement when it’s released"
"PM: Like I said, resilience is going to be probably the top priority, but Cabinet hasn’t made those decisions yet."
"Media: Is climate change going to be front and centre on your transport planning and building?
PM: It’ll still be in there but, as I’ve said, resilience is going to be right at the top of the priority list."
Let's be clear: no one wants a fragile transport system. Resiliency needs to be baked in to every piece of infrastructure in our country. No one wants a less resilient stormwater system in the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle. No one was questioning the need for a resilient healthcare system during COVID (even if they were questioning other, ahem, realities of the situation).
The Prime Minister’s comments seem to be redundant then, if we all agree that resilience is important. Unless they mean to signify something else: a change from the Government's stated policy. A policy which, until recently has been mostly evidence-led. Aiming to increase travel options and housing choice to enable healthy, sustainable living.
Signalling a change in policy, when the policy has been "less road-building" will probably mean "more road-building".
This is concerning to me, not only because I believe that a change from evidence-based policy will limit our ability to meet emissions targets and provide sustainable choices for everyone, but because it reduces our resilience in the near- to long-term.
A note on my feelings about roads
Before I go any further, I want to clarify that I'm not out here to say that no one should drive, or that roads aren't important, or that we shouldn't be making sure our State Highways are in good condition, with safe designs. It's vitally important that we do have these essential connections between our towns and cities. They currently are the arteries through which our people and goods move about our country.
However, I do feel that doubling down on road-building (making them the only realistic way to move) is not resilient: no matter how many we have (within reason). If you want to know why: keep reading.
What is a resilient system?
According to the City Resilience Framework the best characteristics all city (and therefore transport) systems can have are being integrated, inclusive, flexible, redundant, reflective, resourceful, and robust. These are largely applicable at a national scale as well.
Flexible - Flexibility implies that systems can change, evolve and adapt in response to changing circumstances
Inclusive - Inclusion emphasizes the need for broad consultation and engagement of communities, including the most vulnerable groups.
Integrated - Integration and alignment between city systems promotes consistency in decision-making and ensures that all investments are mutually supportive to a common outcome.
Redundant - Redundancy refers to spare capacity purposely created within systems so that they can accommodate disruption, extreme pressures or surges in demand.
Reflective - Reflective systems are accepting of the inherent and ever-increasing uncertainty and change in today’s world.
Resourceful - Resourcefulness implies that people and institutions are able to rapidly find different ways to achieve their goals or meet their needs during a shock or when under stress.
Robust - Robust systems include well-conceived, constructed and managed physical assets, so that they can withstand the impacts of hazard events without significant damage or loss of function.
So, what is a resilient transport system?
With closures like SH25 restricting travel to the Coromandel, it's natural to think that another, alternative road route would add flexibility (route choice) and redundancy (another road adds extra capacity). Surely a sensible decision would be to get shovels in the ground as soon as possible.
When SH1 was closed through the Brynderwyns, having two alternative routes (via Dargaville, or around the coast on Cove Road) meant that traffic could keep flowing. Supplies could be shipped, families were not disconnected, and toilet paper stocks on the shelves were mostly untouched.
Except that Cove Road was almost immediately blocked by overlarge trucks - who were asked explicitly to travel via Dargaville. After clearing the road, it happened again.
Within days, we awoke to headlines that Northland had been completely cut off after slips on these remaining two roads severed the final road connections.
Clearly, this is not resilient.
A resilient freight network would see a high-quality independent rail line for freight that could see large loads transported quickly, removing dependence on trucks. A resilient passenger transport network would see a rail option so those without large amounts of luggage could move freely when roads became jammed. Instead, the rail line to Northland is closed, likely for months. While recently it has received some investment to make it possible to carry containers, little was spent on improving the resiliency of the line.
Redundancy for travel does not have to mean more roads. In fact, sometimes less can be more…
Another example
In 2020, the Auckland Harbour Bridge was closed after a truck ran into a structural support. The city was gridlocked for hours, despite there being a 4-lane motorway around the harbour. Backlogs and congestion cascaded through the street network. Regardless of your origin or destination, you felt the impact of that crash. Most buses were caught in this traffic, because they did not have separate, dedicated lanes in most places.
Trains, on their own tracks, still ran to schedule.
Adding more roads increases capacity in the short term, but that is quickly filled as people move farther away to make use of cheaper land. This adds traffic and vehicle trips to our roads. When this new, larger network is broken by slips, floods, or roadworks the network now has to deal with more vehicle movements and it gets congested.
Providing separate travel options, on integrated but independent systems provides flexibility. The rail network shuts down, but we have solid, reliable buses - that's resilience. If a motorway bridge goes down and your bus in the other direction is delayed, your planning system might not be resilient.
How can the Government incorporate resilience principles moving forward?
Flexible - Do not put all eggs in one basket. Build more roads if needed, but build other, quality options first.
Inclusive - Provide options for people regardless of how they choose to move.
Integrated - Make it easy for people to switch between travel modes, especially in case of emergency. Provide useable, frequent transit alongside car-only options.
Redundant - Create redundancy across travel modes. Remember that roads will fill up, in 3-5 years, so you cannot build your way out of this with more road lanes.
Reflective - Build transport networks that are inherently adaptable. Building only roads limits choices in the future.
Resourceful - Roads are expensive to build, and to maintain. Continuing to expand our network will burden future generations with maintenance costs, or, if they don’t pay those maintenance costs, leave them with deadly roads.
Robust - Build high-capacity options, to ensure lower maintenance costs in the future.
You, a driver, should want this too.
If you have finished reading this, and are thinking "It's all well and good to build rail, but in case of emergency I need to use roads to (get to my family/perform essential services/some other important task)", then I remind you: every person we can remove from the roads in times of emergency is good for you.
We desperately need a resilient country, in our travel and in everything else, but to do that we need to act quickly to provide options to people.
TL:DR; Mandy Patinkin has me covered:
